I.R. Iran-Israel Conflict May Be Looming

THE D.C. WRITEUP

This past July, the G-8 summit enacted a September deadline for Iran to start negotiations over its nuclear program. Last week, Iran responded with “No” and instead offered to talk about a wide variety of subjects: democracy, human rights, disarmament, and terrorism, among some others. The meeting, set for October 1st, would be the first talks since a meeting more than a year ago. The 2008 meeting in Geneva failed because Iran refused to discuss the enrichment issue. Although Iran still refuses to discuss uranium enrichment, the U.S., the European Union and the United Nations agreed to the talks with hope that broad negotiations would eventually evolve to include enrichment and other related topics. Openly critical of the U.S., Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akhbar Salehi accused the U.S. of amassing “frightening and dreadful weaponry in… the Persian Gulf” citing America’s national interests while attempting to deny Iran its sovereign right to develop uranium enrichment for peaceful energy purposes.

Salehi also issued a warning to Israel and the U.S. that Iran is capable and ready to defend itself in the face of an attack on Iran’s nuclear program. However, Iran’s refusal to discuss the main topic for the meetings in the first place, Iran’s nuclear programs, is undermining the Obama administration’s leadership ability to steer negotiations and effectively control the situation. When Obama calls Iran’s nuclear program “unacceptable” yet does not enforce sanctions, he sends mixed messages to our allies, especially Israel. When Obama decided to drop Iran from the agenda of a U.N. Security Council Meeting he will chair, or when Defense Secretary Robert Gates publicly opposed military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, these actions only served to reinforce Israel’s anxiousness and strengthen the conclusion among Israelis that the neither the U.S., nor the international community, will use force to stop Iran.

This restlessness among Israelis has caused them to abandon negotiations and pursue a different strategy. Israel has not been discrete about their fears or capabilities; they have been widely publicizing military exercises designed to advertise and express their willingness to use force. Obama and his administration need to understand the powder keg that is the current situation between Israel and Iran. If Obama refuses to be firm and uncompromising and continues to rely on ineffective diplomacy, Israel will most likely launch an attack against Iran, who will surely respond, plunging the unstable region into all out conflict. If there is an Israeli-Iranian war, U.S. forces in Iraq and the Persian Gulf could be prime targets for retaliation. Obama needs to step up and take a leading role on Iran policy or the powder keg will explode and U.S. forces and interests will be caught in the middle.